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8:35
This morning, the S&P 500 Index e-mini futures (ES H2) are trading higher again by 8.50 points to 1316.75 per contract. It seems that there is better than expected news out of Europe regarding a new debt deal with Greece. How many times have we heard this before? In any case, the reality is that the U.S. Dollar Index is plummeting lower and that is the actual catalyst for the early morning stock rally. These stock markets continue to trade inverse to the U.S. Dollar Index. Traders should follow and trade the action in the PowerShares DB U.S. Dollar Index Bullish ETF (NYSEARCA:UUP) once the opening bell rings at the New York Stock Exchange.
1 Feb 2012
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9:56
This morning, the S&P 500 Index e-mini futures (ES H2) are trading higher by 1.50 points to 1321.25 per contract. Once again, traders can either try and follow the news out of Europe and Asia, or they can follow the action in the U.S. Dollar Index. All traders and investors should recognize that the major stock indexes continue to trade inverse to the U.S. Dollar Index. If the U.S. Dollar Index declines the stock and commodity indexes will inflate and trade higher. The opposite is true if the U.S. Dollar Index rallies, the stock and commodity indexes will decline and deflate lower. It seems to be that simple at this time.
2 Feb 2012
46
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8:06
This morning, the U.S. Labor Department released the non-farm payroll report for the month of January. The report was better than expected as there were 243,000 new jobs added. The unemployment rate also declined to 8.3 percent in January from 8.5 percent in December. While the report was very good and better than expected the data is always controversial. Traders must realize that the major stock indexes have been trading higher since December 19, 2011 without any meaningful pullbacks. These markets are extremely overbought and extended at this time. This morning, the S&P 500 Index e-mini futures (ES H2) are trading higher by 12.00 points to 1334.50 per contract.
3 Feb 2012
47
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6:39
This morning, the S&P 500 Index e-mini futures are declining lower by 4.75 points to 1334.25 per contract. The catalyst for the small decline in the market is once again an unresolved Greek debt deal and a stronger U.S. Dollar Index. Whenever the U.S. Dollar starts the morning higher the major stock indexes will deflate and trade lower. Traders must watch the U.S. Dollar Index very closely once the opening bell rings at the New York Stock Exchange. Since late December, the U.S. Dollar Index has a tendency to decline intra-day once the opening bell rings and the stock markets open for trading. Traders that do not have a chart of the U.S. Dollar Index can simply follow the PowerShares DB U.S. Dollar Index Bullish (NYSEARCA:UUP).
6 Feb 2012
46
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8:57
This morning, the S&P 500 Index e-mini futures (ES H2) are trading slightly lower by 2.25 points to 1336.75 per contract. The small decline in the S&P 500 Index can change on a dime if the U.S. Dollar Index declines. Nearly every trading session the U.S. Dollar Index will decline when the stock market begins trading at 9:30 am EST. In my humble opinion, the markets continue to trade inverse to the U.S. Dollar Index, until that relationship changes the U.S. Dollar Index chart should be followed by every trader and investor at all times. Many investors are waiting for a resolution out of Greece. We shall see if a bailout deal really gets done or if Greece actually leaves the Euro-zone; something has to give eventually.
7 Feb 2012
47
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9:08
All of the major stock indexes continue to gain almost every single trading day. The falling U.S. Dollar Index has been the catalyst for every higher move in the stock market. Greece, and Europe have become less and less of a factor until the problems start to hit home. The Bernanke put option appears to be in play for now. This morning, the S&P 500 Index e-mini futures (ES H2) are trading higher by 1.25 points to 1346.00 per contract. Traders and investors must keep an eye on the U.S. Dollar Index at all times once the market opens for trading. The inverse relationship between the stock market and the U.S. Dollar Index is very much intact at this time.
8 Feb 2012
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9:31
This morning, the big announcement out of Europe is that the ECB has reached another bailout deal with Greece. I know we have all heard this before. This is the second bailout package for the country in two years. Who will be next in line for another bailout? Will it be Portugal, Ireland, Belgium, Spain, Italy, or perhaps Lithuania? We can only wonder if today's Greek bailout deal will be a sell the news event. We shall see soon enough. The S&P 500 Index e-mini futures (ES H2) are trading higher by 2.00 points to 1349.00 per contract. Earlier today, the Bank of England (BOE) increased its quantitative easing program by £50 billion to £325 billion. They also kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.50 percent. The other major central bank in Europe; called the ECB, also held their key interest rate unchanged at 1.00 percent.
9 Feb 2012
85
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7:15
This morning, the S&P 500 Index e-mini futures (ES H2) are trading higher by 9.00 points to 1349.50 per contract. The catalyst for the early morning rally is once again the second bailout of Greece. Over the weekend, the Greek prime minister won a confidence vote by the Greek parliament. This news has caused the U.S. Dollar Index to decline and when that happens the stock markets inflate higher. Greece has experienced rioting, looting, and countless fires this past weekend. All of the leading European stock indexes are trading higher this morning.
13 Feb 2012
90
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10:36
This morning, the S&P 500 Index e-mini futures (ES H2) are trading higher by 5.00 points to 1352.75 per contract. The catalyst for the higher market is a pledge by China to participate in a European bailout. This stuff can't be made up. Where is China coming up with money to help bail out the European Union? In any case, the stock market loves a good inflation rally and that is what we have seen now for the past two months as every central bank has flooded the markets with liquidity.
15 Feb 2012
49
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12:08
This morning, the S&P 500 Index e-mini futures (ES H2) are trading lower by 3.75 points to 1338.50 per contract. Yesterday, the major stock stock indexes finally sold off into the close. This sell off may not have been anything more than profit taking from a short term overbought and extended condition. Traders should continue to follow the U.S. Dollar Index very closely. When the U.S. Dollar declines the major stock indexes will inflate and trade higher, the opposite is true when the U.S. Dollar Index rallies, the major stock indexes will deflate and trade lower.
16 Feb 2012
62
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7:41
This morning, the S&P 500 Index e-mini futures (ES H2) are trading lower by 2.75 points to 1357.25 per contract. Once again, the U.S. Dollar Index is trading higher before the opening bell. As you all probably know by now, when the U.S. Dollar Index futures (DX H2) are higher the major stock market indexes are generally lower. The opposite effect will take place if the U.S. Dollar Index declines, the leading stock and commodity markets will usually trade higher. Nearly every trading day when the U.S. Dollar Index is higher before the opening bell it will have a tendency to decline when the stock market opens for trading. Every trader should have a chart of the U.S. Dollar Index up at all times. If you do not have a chart of the U.S. Dollar Index, you can use PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish(NYSEARCA:UUP), or the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish (NYSEARCA:UDN).
22 Feb 2012
64
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10:09
Once again, the S&P 500 Index e-mini futures (ES H2) are trading higher before the opening bell by 1.25 points to 1357.25 per contract. The European markets are trading flat today, however, the U.S. Dollar Index is trading lower. Traders and investors continue to watch and listen for any news out of Europe. The European Union is still the wild card that could spoil the inflation rally. High energy prices are likely to persist as long as we have a weaker U.S. Dollar and the geopolitical events in the Middle East. Higher energy will eventually hurt the U.S. consumer and the economy. The United States Gasoline Fund (NYSEARCA:UGA) closed at a new two year high yesterday at $56.15 a share. Spot crude is also trading above $106.30 a barrel. The United States Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:USO) is trading at a nine month high at $40.79 a share before the opening bell.
23 Feb 2012
65
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7:58
This morning, all of the major stock market indexes are declining lower before the opening bell. The leading European stock indexes are trading lower by more than 1.0 percent. The S&P 500 Index e-mini futures (ES H2) are trading lower by 6.75 percent to 1356.50 per contract. Lately, when the markets start lower before the opening bell they have had a tendency to bounce back after a morning sell off. Will the markets inflate higher again today after the opening rings at the New York Stock Exchange? Traders should keep their eye on the U.S. Dollar Index, should the U.S. Dollar decline, there is a good chance that the market will inflate higher once again. If the U.S. Dollar remains strong the major stock indexes could continue to deflate and sell off further. Traders that do not have a chart of the U.S. Dollar Index futures should watch and follow the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (NYSEARCA:UUP).
27 Feb 2012
115
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6:52
Once again, the major stock market indexes are trading higher before the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange. The S&P 500 Index e-mini futures (ES H2) is trading higher by 2.00 points to 1369.50 per contract. Yesterday, the major stock indexes started the day very weak and basically rallied right back to the unchanged levels before the lunch hour. This type of action tells us that the market is pricing in inflation nearly every trading day. All traders should keep an eye on the U.S. Dollar Index at all times. When the U.S. Dollar Index dips the stock and commodity markets inflate. Just look at the United States Gasoline Fund (NYSEARCA:UGA) since December 19, 2011 if you want to see inflation in motion.
28 Feb 2012
76
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9:41
Earlier today, the European Central Bank (ECB) issued it's second Long Term Financing Operation (LTRO) to 800 European banks. The amount lent to the banks was $712.8 billion for three years. Many of these banks will use the money to play the carry trade, others will pay down their own debt. The first LTRO program in December 2011 had 500 banks participate. Leading European banks such as Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE:DB), and Lloyds Banking Group plc (NYSE:LYG) are trading higher this morning. The S&P 500 Index e-mini futures (ES H2) are trading higher by 1.50 points to 1373.00 per contract.
29 Feb 2012
82
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7:18
This morning, the S&P 500 Index e-mini futures (ES-H2) are trading lower 4.00 points to 1370.50 per contract. The real catalyst for the early morning weakness in the S&P 500 Index is the fact that the U.S. Dollar Index is trading higher. As you should all know by now, a stronger dollar usually means a weaker stock and commodity market. Today before the opening bell, traders and investors can see the early weakness in the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEARCA:GLD), ProShares Ultra Silver ETF (NYSEARCA:AGQ), and the ProShares Ultra DJ-UBS Crude Oil (NYSEARCA:UCO). It is important to remember that whenever the U.S. Dollar Index is strong before the opening bell it will have a tendency to fade shortly after the opening bell helping to inflate asset prices. We shall see if this phenomenon happens again as if often does.
2 Mar 2012
81
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