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Once again, the S&P 500 Index e-mini futures (ES U1) are trading higher by 10.50 points to 1133.75 per contract. Since the recent stock market collapse we have seen many gap higher opens, however, most of those early rallies have lead to stock market sell offs. Usually, the markets will have a better chance of closing higher on the session when stocks begin the session lower and then rally into the late afternoon. At this time, every higher open seems to be getting sold off by the institutions once the opening bell rings at the New York Stock Exchange. We shall see if today is going to be different.
23 Aug 2011
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This morning, the S&P 500 Index e-mini futures (ES U1) are trading lower by 1.25 points to 1157.25 per contract. The major stock index futures were trading sharply lower before the U.S. durable goods orders data was released, durable orders jumped by 4.0% in the month of July. Yesterday, the major stocks indexes staged a very impressive rally on the back of poor economic data. When markets rally on bad news it can be viewed as short term strength. Before you get too excited, please remember the data out of Europe is still very poor. Greek yields on the 10 year bond surged to over 17.0 percent this morning, therefore, any stock market rally can come to an abrupt halt at any moment.
24 Aug 2011
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This morning, the S&P 500 Index e-mini futures (ES U1) are trading higher by 2.00 points to 1174.00 per contract. The move higher in the futures comes despite the soaring bond yields in the 2 and 10 year Greek debt. It seems that the bad news out of Greece is being swept under the rug at this time. This tells us that the stock market is focusing on Italy and Spain when it comes to the European Union. When markets can move higher on bad news this is usually short term bullish. Tomorrow, the Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Ben Bernanke will make a speech from Jackson Hole, Wyoming. It is at this time last year that the Bernank announced his plan to initiate his QE-2 program. This time around, the Bernank is not expected to mention another round of quantitative easing, however, he may mention some other creative way to add cash reserves to the banking system.
25 Aug 2011
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Once again, the S&P 500 Index e-mini futures (ES U1) are trading lower by 5.75 points to 1151.75 per contract. The catalyst for the early declines in the market are the same old unsolved problems such as the European debt crisis and a continued global slow down. At 8:30 am EST the second quarter GDP report was revised down to 1.0 percent, this was in line with expectations. Things have slowed down considerably and that is the hard reality. All eyes will be on the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke this morning, he will be giving a speech from Jackson Hole, Wyoming at 10:00am EST. This speech by the leader of the U.S. central bank is likely to be a market moving event. All traders and investors will be listening to every word that is uttered out of the mouth of the Bernank. During the same time last year, Chairman Bernanke announced his plans to launch QE-2 which ended in late June 2011. This time around he is not expected to announce QE-3.
26 Aug 2011
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This morning, the S&P 500 Index e-mini futures (ES U1) are trading sharply higher by 12.00 points to 1217.00 per contract. Traders continue to be in jubilee mode as the European Union markets are also trading higher this morning. This is the last trading session in the month of August and often the end of the month will see some short term buying. This is also the final trading week before the Labor Day holiday in the United States, therefore, the volume will usually be much lighter than normal. Many traders and investors will often take a vacation around this time of the year. It is important to note that the major stock indexes have surged higher over the past week, profit taking is always possible ahead of the important August non-farm payroll report on Friday. This morning, the ADP report announced that 91,000 new private sector jobs were added in the month of August.
31 Aug 2011
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This morning, the S&P 500 Index e-mini futures (ES U1) are trading lower by 1.00 point to 1216.75 per contract. The futures markets are holding up well considering that most European stock indexes are under pressure this morning. The German DAX is trading lower by 1.60 percent before the markets open for trading in the United States. European markets must be followed closely at this time since this is where a lot of the fear has come from. The stock markets in the United States have now rallied higher since August 22, 2011, the S&P 500 Index has gained over 100.00 points from that low. Traders and investors must be on guard today against some profit taking before the highly anticipated non-farm payroll report by the U.S. Labor Department. That important report will will be released tomorrow morning at 8:30 am EST. This job report should cause a short term reaction in the stock market.
1 Sep 2011
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The U.S. Labor Department just released the August non-farm payroll report. The major stock market futures continue to decline after the report signaled that there were zero jobs created in the month of August. The Labor Department actually used some creative transformation vocabulary calling the job report unchanged which actually means zero jobs created. Oh what a world we live in. The European Union is also facing major problems this morning, the second Greek bailout deal seems to be falling apart by the minute. We can now only wonder when Greece will go back to the Greek Drachma. Many traders and investors are now wondering if the Federal Reserve is going to have to put QE-3 back on the table. We can all see how well the last QE-2 worked. In any case, the S&P 500 Index e-mini futures (ES U1) are trading lower by 18.75 to 1182.50 per contract.
2 Sep 2011
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Once again, the S&P 500 Index e-mini futures (ES U1) are trading sharply lower before the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange. This is starting to become a common occurrence these days ahead of the open. The problems in the world seem to be getting worst and not better. The European Union seems to be in disarray, many traders and investors are now wondering when the EU will actually begin to break up and go their own separate ways. If Greece is such a big problem to fix what will happen with Italy and Spain that are much larger countries.
6 Sep 2011
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This morning, the S&P 500 Index e-mini futures (ES U1) are trading higher by 13.75 points to 1178.25 per contract. This is a solid move in the futures market as the European markets are trading higher as well. Often when the futures are trading higher to start the day the European markets signal weakness and most rallies will fade after the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange. This may not be the case today as the early rally has a better than average chance of holding up throughout the entire session. Traders should not take anything for granted in this environment as things can change on a dime.
7 Sep 2011
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This morning, the S&P 500 Index e-mini futures are trading lower by 10.00 points to $1188.50 per contract. Once again, the problems in the European Union are starting to grow by the minute. The European Central Bank kept their benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.5 percent. This is not a big surprise and was really already priced in by investors. The other problem is that Greek debt is once again spiking sharply higher. Many traders and investors believe that if Greece cannot be contained then what will happen with Italy, Spain, and France?
8 Sep 2011
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This morning, the S&P 500 Index e-mini futures are trading lower by 2.75 points to 1183.00 per contract. Believe it or not, the futures markets are holding up rather well considering all of the bad and negative news coming out of Europe this morning. The French CAC 40 is trading lower by 1.06 percent as French banks have been under some selling pressure. We shall see if things get better throughout the trading day. The German DAX has rebounded off of earlier lows and this is helping the European picture for the close of their trading session.
9 Sep 2011
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This morning, the S&P 500 Index e-mini futures (ES U1) are trading lower by 2.00 points to 1161.25 per contract. Later today, Germany and France will meet and make a decision on Greece. The S&P 500 Index futures are holding up very well, therefore, this tells us that the odds are favoring an announcement that will benefit the markets. Yesterday, the major stock indexes staged a sharp reversal to the upside by the closing bell. The catalyst for yesterday's rally was caused by the falling U.S. Dollar Index. There was also a rumor that the Chinese will be buying Italian debt. We shall see if this is true, who would really want to hold debt of an insolvent country?
13 Sep 2011
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Once again, the European debt crisis is being held together by another band-aid on the problem. This afternoon, Germany, France, and Greece will get together to discuss the future of Greece being part of the European Union. As of this time, most investors expect a bailout package for Greece, however, a structured default cannot be ruled out. News out of the European Union can often fool investors. Earlier today, the credit rating agency Moody's downgraded two leading French banks. We can only wonder who will be next. The S&P 500 Index e-mini futures (ES U1) have traded all over the map. The ES futures are trading higher by 6.00 points to 1177.75 per contract. We shall see if they can hold up throughout the trading session.
14 Sep 2011
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This morning, the S&P 500 Index e-mini futures (ES U1) is trading higher by 2.25 points to 1190.75 per contract. The major stock indexes in the United States have rallied for three consecutive trading days and trying to make it four in a row. Traders must be very careful today, after all, it is options expiration tomorrow. During the trading week leading up to quadruple witching options expiration the markets will often be very volatile and turbulent. The problems in the European Union are being swept under the rug these days ahead of the European Union (EU) meeting in Poland tomorrow. The EU gathering will include U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner as they try and create another bailout fund for the Euro-zone similar to the U.S. Toxic Asset Relief Program (TARP).
15 Sep 2011
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This morning, the S&P 500 Index e-mini futures (ES Z1) are trading lower by 4.25 points to 1200.00 per contract. This is the final trading session of the week and also quadruple witching options expiration. The S&P 500 Index has gained 55.00 points this week, staging four consecutive winning sessions. The markets have rallied on news that Europe will initiate a Toxic Asset Relief Program (TARP) to help it's troubled banks. Yesterday, the European Central Bank announced that several central banks including the Federal Reserve would lend U.S. Dollars to troubled banks in Europe. This news cause a major rally. We shall see how long it can last. Normally on options expiration the markets will be volatile in the first couple of hours and then trade sideways until the end of the day. There can always be some activity in the final hour of the day.
16 Sep 2011
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17 Sep 2011
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